Tuesday, December 9, 2008

NFL Playoff Run- Wizard of Oz Edition

And down the stretch they come!! Three weeks of NFL regular season left and there are a lot of contenders and really no outright favorite. Last year the Pats were Vegas (almost) mortal locks; they were something like 1:2 favorites to win the Superbowl before the playoffs started.

This year no one has separated themselves, no one seems invincible, no one doesn't have a somewhat glaring weakness. In that sense, this years playoff race is setting up like a current day, roided up version of The Wizard of Oz only without any munchkins, unless you count Bob Costas. Anyway, like Dorothy and her ragtag friends, each of this years contenders needs to find something on their journey to make that next step to reach the end. Lets review the 10 biggest contenders (according to ESPN's NFL Power Rankings) and their needs:

10) Patriots- The Patriots biggest problem has been consistency, a weird problem for a team with such solid coaching. Mostly its due to the age of their defense, injuries that make you question if there is a God, and every team's desire to avenge F-U touchdowns and Spygate leftovers. A few blowout wins, a few blowout losses (all to potential playoff teams) create no genuine identity of the team. As truly unlikely as it seems, if the Pats can gain some semblance of consistency, their skill and experience can carry them to a few vics.

9) Cardinals- The Cardinals, like Matt Leinart's sex life, can seemingly score in droves. Somehow Kurt Warner is concussion free this year and the Cards have the best wideout tandem in years. They are 7-1 on the West Coast and 1-3 in other timezones. More than anything they need an antidote to the road woes, some road identity. Likely ending up in the three seed in the NFC, the Cards could have to travel to New York or Carolina (again and again) , and be able to perform away from the desert.

8) Cowboys- Like the Lion in WoO the Cowboys are in desperate need of some heart. They may not be as cowardly as the Lion but any team with Terrell Owens, Pacman Jones, Jessica Simpson's boyfriend, and a pair of Roy Williams' will be lacking in the heady departments. Most recently owner Jerry Jones called out beastly running back Marion Barber and his manliness, because that ever works. The Cowboys will have a tough road ahead, mostly on the road, but their skill won't fail them. If/when the Cowboys falter, you can bet it will be a mental mistake.

7) Ravens- The Ravens may be the un-Cowboys. Heart they've got, and plenty of it, from vets slash accused murderers like Ray Lewis to the brazen rookie Joe Flacco. The Ravens need what the Cowboys have in spades, some raw skill. If their receivers are sitting coach class, their running backs are stuck in the bathroom because the food-cart is outside the door. Defense is a symptom common to Super Bowl championships but talent shines in January although the 2000 Ravens had NO Pro Bowlers on offense, so forget we had this discussion.

6) Buccaneers- Its hard to tell what the Bucs need because its hard to tell what the really do Bucs well. They have a pretty good defense, experienced and decent options at QB and RBs, and receivers that deserve lauding. A list of their strengths aren't so potently strong. They don't overwhelm you anywhere and aren't mistake-prone (Garcia only 3 INTs), they sort of just float on unsuspecting. That doesn't work in the playoffs and this team needs to show up, and create an image for themselves. Do they want to be the decent at everything, outstanding at nothing team that plays one playoff game? Time for Chucky to put his team infront of a mirror and find some answers.

5) Colts- I have been correctly called out for a gambling crush on the 2008 Colts, one that hasn't yielded many happy finishes. Let's be clear, having won six in a row or not, the 08 Colts aren't the Colts we are used to. They don't make big plays, they are run first, and don't blow out teams. Sure they can still score, but mostly our old nemeses (really who ever liked the Colts) are getting older. Marvin Harrison scares no one, Reggie Wayne lost a step, Dallas Clark's concussions have finally taken their toll, and the walking commercial reel is not the steady-handed surgeon we used to fear. The Colts need a breath of fresh air to rejuvenate some of these familiar vets.

4) Panthers- Anyone who watched the Panthers evisceration of the Bucs last night on MNF saw something scary. Running for 300 yards and four TDs against a team who had allowed one rushing TD all year speaks for itself. Their defense, like the two-headed running game, went from sneaky-good to flat-out-good before our eyes last night. One glaring hole for the Panthers is perhaps their most visible player, Jake Delhomme. He stinks worse than Sex Panther (26th in passer rating, 17th in yards passing, 25th in comp%) and their running game can only hide him for so long. Its too late to get a QB, but they need one nonetheless.

3) Steelers- The Steelers have courage, skill, experience, defense, offense, and the list goes on. They beat bad teams, they beat good teams. Overall this may be the most well rounded team, but are still a team with one legitimate problem. Big Ben, Willie Parker, Heath Miller, LaMarr Woodley have all missed games due to injuries. They need to get healthy but future slugfests with the Ravens and Titans won't help things. The Steelers grind out wins so there is no let up on the horizon.

2) Giants- What a couple weeks for the Giants? From knocking off the Steelers and convincing everyone that the Superbowl went through the Meadowlands, to a stray bullet in Plaxico's pants (not this kind, the dangerous kind), and a ghastly loss to the Eagles, and now the Giants are a little dependent on their rear-view mirrors. The G-Men could use a bit of humility, in my humblest opinion of course. Remember them this time last year, severe underdogs, and really a fluke catch away from being that way this year too. Eli is improved but still vulnerable and a loose cannon, and now has lost his only scary receiver. The Giants should go back to their roots and understand that no one coasts to Lombardi trophy.

1) Titans- The Titans are crazy talented and backed by a core of guys named Chris Johnson, Lendale White, Bo Scaife, Cortland Finnigan, Chris Hope, and a dude who stomped on someone's head with cleats. This is a team full of indians and Kerry Collins doesn't seem like the chief that takes this kind of defensive, running team to the promised land. The Titans need leadership on the field that can prevent no-show losses to the Jets, and then the undisciplined outbursts that follow losses. Week 16 and 17 match ups with the Steelers and Colts might be the exact challenge that will draw find a leader from amongst the common men.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Haha wizard of oz is a good analogy. Everyone has butter fingers lately, I think its crap. Are the gloves made of butter? Great blog! Check out mine sometime ;-)

http://nfl-merchandise.blogspot.com/