Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

NFL Playoff Run- Wizard of Oz Edition

And down the stretch they come!! Three weeks of NFL regular season left and there are a lot of contenders and really no outright favorite. Last year the Pats were Vegas (almost) mortal locks; they were something like 1:2 favorites to win the Superbowl before the playoffs started.

This year no one has separated themselves, no one seems invincible, no one doesn't have a somewhat glaring weakness. In that sense, this years playoff race is setting up like a current day, roided up version of The Wizard of Oz only without any munchkins, unless you count Bob Costas. Anyway, like Dorothy and her ragtag friends, each of this years contenders needs to find something on their journey to make that next step to reach the end. Lets review the 10 biggest contenders (according to ESPN's NFL Power Rankings) and their needs:

10) Patriots- The Patriots biggest problem has been consistency, a weird problem for a team with such solid coaching. Mostly its due to the age of their defense, injuries that make you question if there is a God, and every team's desire to avenge F-U touchdowns and Spygate leftovers. A few blowout wins, a few blowout losses (all to potential playoff teams) create no genuine identity of the team. As truly unlikely as it seems, if the Pats can gain some semblance of consistency, their skill and experience can carry them to a few vics.

9) Cardinals- The Cardinals, like Matt Leinart's sex life, can seemingly score in droves. Somehow Kurt Warner is concussion free this year and the Cards have the best wideout tandem in years. They are 7-1 on the West Coast and 1-3 in other timezones. More than anything they need an antidote to the road woes, some road identity. Likely ending up in the three seed in the NFC, the Cards could have to travel to New York or Carolina (again and again) , and be able to perform away from the desert.

8) Cowboys- Like the Lion in WoO the Cowboys are in desperate need of some heart. They may not be as cowardly as the Lion but any team with Terrell Owens, Pacman Jones, Jessica Simpson's boyfriend, and a pair of Roy Williams' will be lacking in the heady departments. Most recently owner Jerry Jones called out beastly running back Marion Barber and his manliness, because that ever works. The Cowboys will have a tough road ahead, mostly on the road, but their skill won't fail them. If/when the Cowboys falter, you can bet it will be a mental mistake.

7) Ravens- The Ravens may be the un-Cowboys. Heart they've got, and plenty of it, from vets slash accused murderers like Ray Lewis to the brazen rookie Joe Flacco. The Ravens need what the Cowboys have in spades, some raw skill. If their receivers are sitting coach class, their running backs are stuck in the bathroom because the food-cart is outside the door. Defense is a symptom common to Super Bowl championships but talent shines in January although the 2000 Ravens had NO Pro Bowlers on offense, so forget we had this discussion.

6) Buccaneers- Its hard to tell what the Bucs need because its hard to tell what the really do Bucs well. They have a pretty good defense, experienced and decent options at QB and RBs, and receivers that deserve lauding. A list of their strengths aren't so potently strong. They don't overwhelm you anywhere and aren't mistake-prone (Garcia only 3 INTs), they sort of just float on unsuspecting. That doesn't work in the playoffs and this team needs to show up, and create an image for themselves. Do they want to be the decent at everything, outstanding at nothing team that plays one playoff game? Time for Chucky to put his team infront of a mirror and find some answers.

5) Colts- I have been correctly called out for a gambling crush on the 2008 Colts, one that hasn't yielded many happy finishes. Let's be clear, having won six in a row or not, the 08 Colts aren't the Colts we are used to. They don't make big plays, they are run first, and don't blow out teams. Sure they can still score, but mostly our old nemeses (really who ever liked the Colts) are getting older. Marvin Harrison scares no one, Reggie Wayne lost a step, Dallas Clark's concussions have finally taken their toll, and the walking commercial reel is not the steady-handed surgeon we used to fear. The Colts need a breath of fresh air to rejuvenate some of these familiar vets.

4) Panthers- Anyone who watched the Panthers evisceration of the Bucs last night on MNF saw something scary. Running for 300 yards and four TDs against a team who had allowed one rushing TD all year speaks for itself. Their defense, like the two-headed running game, went from sneaky-good to flat-out-good before our eyes last night. One glaring hole for the Panthers is perhaps their most visible player, Jake Delhomme. He stinks worse than Sex Panther (26th in passer rating, 17th in yards passing, 25th in comp%) and their running game can only hide him for so long. Its too late to get a QB, but they need one nonetheless.

3) Steelers- The Steelers have courage, skill, experience, defense, offense, and the list goes on. They beat bad teams, they beat good teams. Overall this may be the most well rounded team, but are still a team with one legitimate problem. Big Ben, Willie Parker, Heath Miller, LaMarr Woodley have all missed games due to injuries. They need to get healthy but future slugfests with the Ravens and Titans won't help things. The Steelers grind out wins so there is no let up on the horizon.

2) Giants- What a couple weeks for the Giants? From knocking off the Steelers and convincing everyone that the Superbowl went through the Meadowlands, to a stray bullet in Plaxico's pants (not this kind, the dangerous kind), and a ghastly loss to the Eagles, and now the Giants are a little dependent on their rear-view mirrors. The G-Men could use a bit of humility, in my humblest opinion of course. Remember them this time last year, severe underdogs, and really a fluke catch away from being that way this year too. Eli is improved but still vulnerable and a loose cannon, and now has lost his only scary receiver. The Giants should go back to their roots and understand that no one coasts to Lombardi trophy.

1) Titans- The Titans are crazy talented and backed by a core of guys named Chris Johnson, Lendale White, Bo Scaife, Cortland Finnigan, Chris Hope, and a dude who stomped on someone's head with cleats. This is a team full of indians and Kerry Collins doesn't seem like the chief that takes this kind of defensive, running team to the promised land. The Titans need leadership on the field that can prevent no-show losses to the Jets, and then the undisciplined outbursts that follow losses. Week 16 and 17 match ups with the Steelers and Colts might be the exact challenge that will draw find a leader from amongst the common men.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Fearless-er Predictions After Week 7

So the last time I tried this, there were some bulls eyes and some train wrecks, leaving me to believe I was meant to do this again in week seven. Today I bring you the updated, accurate, clairvoyant, and likely to be revised in a few more weeks, team breakdowns. Lets start at the top:


MAIN COURSES: Cowboys, Giants, Steelers, Bills, Titans

Cowboys- Maybe Jerry Jones and I are alone in this, but these guys have too much talent not to be relevant in January.

Giants- They don't seem scary, but they kinda are; Eli doesn't seem good, but he kinda is.

Steelers- Surviving injuries and barely escaping games early and with their next four games being tough, they could find themselves a couple catergories lower next go-around.

Bills- Poor man's Titans (see Titans below) in an ACL-ripped division.

Titans- The best running game and the best defense in the league makes you forget the fossil standing under center.

THE SCRAPPY: Eagles, Packers, Jaguars, Bears, Cardinals, Bucs, Panthers

Eagles- They alternate showing up and not showing up, but had a bye week to straighten it out.

Packers- Can't count out a team in Lambau with a studly, bruising defense, just like you can't count out a petty former Packers quarterback dominating the headlines.

Jaguars- Really not deserving of faith, but they'll cakewalk through five of the next six weeks.

Bears- Another team with a "good enough" QB, a strong defense, and a crappy division.

Cardinals- Larry Fitzgerald is the best receiver in the league, and the only one who doesn't whine.

Bucs- Their defense is so manly, it makes up for their quarterback's not-so-manliness (just kidding he's got a much much hotter wife than anyone in the NFL, Tom Brady included).

Panthers- Maybe the most well rounded team in the claustrophobic NFC South.

SO YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE: Colts, Broncos, Patriots, Chargers, Ravens, Saints, Redskins, Falcons

Colts- I can't figure out if the Colts will make the playoffs, but you don't your team to play them there.

Broncos- Not a resume I would want to bring to a job interview.

Patriots- Don't be down about the Rodney Harrison injury; he was about as an effective safety option as Bristol Palin's birth control.

Chargers- Someone needs to tell them that this isn't study hall, they MUST show up every week.

Ravens- Impressive rebound from last year but they can't beat good teams.

Saints- A true enigma week in and out, they win and lose in baffling fashion.

Redskins- Most people don't value them this low, but most people don't have to trough through their games every week on TV.

Falcons- Ryan, Turner, Smith and other the other generic last name new editions are righting the Vick-Ship.

THE SCRAP HEAPS: Browns, Vikings, Jets, Texans, Seahawks, Dolphins

Browns- Like everyone else, they should just blame it on the economic crisis.

Vikings- Too many players on the team who aren't Adrian Peterson.

Jets- When you put an ugly girl in a pretty dress it doesn't change her from being an ugly girl.

Texans- Its my opinion that Gary Kubiak should be the next coach to go; Texans have too much talent to support the way they play.

Seahawks- Superbowl runners-up two years ago, a playoff win last year, and now one win in seven weeks; this team is needs a Red Bull or something.

Dolphins- That wildcat formation is too gimmicky to take seriously, yet keeps them above the stink.

PLAYING FOR A DRAFT PICK: Bengals, Raiders, 49ers, Chiefs, Lions, Rams

Bengals- A joke I heard- "The Bengals are like possums, they play dead at home and get killed on the road."

Raiders- Al Davis goes through head coaches like fantasy football owners go through kickers.

49ers- Another year where I wish the Patriots owned the rights to the 49ers lottery pick.

Chiefs- LJ spits in a woman's face, Tony Gonzalez DOES ask to be traded; nothing goes right in KC.

Rams- Just assuming Jim Haslett's 2-0 record is a modern day example of beginners' luck.

Lions- Since the Dolphins couldn't go 0-16 last year, these Lions could be the chosen ones.

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Fearless Predictions After Week 2

I feel similarly about the predicting things relating to the NFL as I do going to strip clubs. I like to get in there and get my bearings before making any rash decisions. At a strip club, you want to get comfortable with your surroundings, try to find the best location, take a gander at the personnel; basically do a little research before committing to anything. Picking NFL games is pretty much the same thing. Just like you don't walk in and start throwing around bills like they're nothing, you don't jump in and start making rash predictions like the Bills will be nothing.

Last year after watching a full slate of week 1 games, I thought I had figured everything out. I assumed I would be making the bookies my bitches and impressing my friends with clairvoyance. I probably don't need to explain to you that my plan didn't exactly work out. This year I have taken in two weeks of games and still don't have it all figured out, but I'm on the scent. Right now the NFL is the polar bear in the jungle of LOST and I am scouring the trail like Locke, picking up on all sorts of clipped branches, spots of blood, and footprints. I will find that polar bear, but for now, here's what I have:

THE CONTENDERS: Cowboys, Eagles, Packers, Panthers, Giants, Steelers, Colts, Broncos, Patriots.

Cowboys- With Brady put down, demonstrative favorites and most fun team to watch thanks to HBO's Hard Knocks.

Eagles- Sure they destroyed a bad team but they are back to their old selves.

Packers- Too many parallels between Aaron Rodgers and Obe Won to doubt them

Panthers- Like ShamWow, I don't really get how this works, but you can't argue with results, and they've cleaned up two big stains.

Giants- It's cute that one New York team doesn't lose.

Steelers- Best looking team in the AFC so far which is like saying the cutest girl at fat camp.

Colts- Peyton Manning Beta may be a downgrade from the original, but its not Jason Patric in Speed 2: Cruise Control.

Broncos- They've got talent, luck, and a good schedule on their side.

Patriots- Possibly the child sitting at the Contenders' grown-up table right now but they are still hungry.

PRETTY SCRAPPY: Bills, Browns, Titans, Jaguars, Bears, Vikings, Cardinals

Bills- Two great outings bolstered by stellar defense the pride of Canada this year.

Browns- With losses to the AFC and NFC favorites so far it may be time to start identifying the emergency exits but don't jump yet!

Titans- You can't win a SuperBowl with Kerry Collins and good defense but you can sure cover a lot of spreads.

Jaguars- People calling them preseason favorites is a joke considering they got worse this year.

Bears- A team that drastically improved and went back to its roots of defense and running.

Vikings- Tarvaris Jackson is the biggest tragedy in Minnesota since that bridge went down... too soon?

Cardinals- Should romp to the NFC West crown, or as I like to call it, the 8th place ribbon.

NOT HORRIBLE, BUT NOT GOOD: Bucs, Chargers, Jets, Ravens, Texans, Saints

Bucs- Should be better, should be good; wont be better, wont be good.

Chargers- As usual, the Chargers softness will ultimately undermine their ridiculous talent.

Jets- "Why Football is Not a One Man Sport" by Brett Favre with an introduction by Steven Jackson

Ravens- Haven't seen them enough yet to be sure they won't live up to expectations.

Texans- The nip-slip of the NFL: fun and worth checking out, but ultimately unsatisfying.

PRETTY CRAPPY: Bengals, Raiders, Redskins, Falcons, Seahawks, 49ers

Bengals- If Carson Palmer was a baseball player we would have already convicted him as a steroid-user.

Raiders- What do you even say about a team that announces it will fire its coach after the game and still beats a division opponent on the road?

Falcons- Improving, but then again Matt Ryan running a cat-fighting ring would be a positive step.

Seahawks- Like Sarah Palin, the more I see, the more I detest them.

49ers- Maybe my fantasy crush on Frank Gore is blinding me here or maybe my fantasy crush of Frank Gore is blinding me here.

PLAYING FOR A DRAFT PICK: Dolphins, Chiefs, Lions, Rams

Dolphins- Miami is making a serious run at Seattle for worst sports city of the year.

Chiefs- I think it's weird you never hear Tony G. requesting a trade.

Lions- Annual leader in fan signs asking team to fire front office staff for a reason.

Rams- The worst teams in the NFC and AFC play in Missouri.